With a relatively light week for economic releases, the primary focus of the economic landscape is the nonfarm payroll report, which has shown a positive trend over the last few releases. This should help consumers keep up with current inflation levels, although the Federal Reserve has remained firm in its commitment to reaching its 2% inflation target.
The unemployment rate has also continued to trend downward after reaching a high of 4.5% last year. The economy continues to be reported as healthy, but with ongoing geopolitical conflicts and other uncertainties, inflation remains a major concern for many. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates remains high.
Unemployment Rate
The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.3% in May and below expectations, as many people left the workforce. The number of unemployed individuals fell by 213,000 to 7.09 million, while total employment declined by 507,000 to 162.26 million. The labor force contracted by 720,000 to 169.36 million, with the participation rate falling to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. The employment-population ratio also dipped to a four-year low of 59.0%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, decreased to 7.9% from 8.1%.
Nonfarm Payroll
The US economy added 57K jobs in June 2026, well below the downwardly revised 129K in May and forecasts of 110K. This was the lowest monthly job gain in four months, but it was still roughly in line with the average monthly change over the prior 12 months (+36K). In June, employment continued to trend upward in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care. Employment in leisure and hospitality declined.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, bringing the current rate to 6.57%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, bringing the current rate to 7.18%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 6.82%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 6.84%.
Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims came in at 194,000, compared to the expected 200,000. The previous week’s figure was 200,000.
What’s Ahead
The week ahead is expected to be relatively light, with the Federal Reserve scheduled to announce its interest rate decision midweek.